Coachella Valley Real Estate Reset: 2025–2026 Outlook

Coachella Valley Market Update — December 2025

Final Year-in-Review Analysis for Buyers, Sellers, and Short-Term Rental Owners

As we close the books on 2025, one thing is clear: the Coachella Valley housing market didn’t crash — it normalized.

After years of pandemic-era volatility, December’s data from GPSR and CDAR confirms we’ve returned to something closer to a traditional, supply-and-demand–driven market. Prices are largely holding, inventory has rebuilt, and leverage now depends on strategy, not speed.

This update breaks down what the final 2025 numbers mean — specifically for buyers, sellers, and short-term rental (STR) property owners — and how each group should think about positioning in early 2026.

All data below reflects the most recent 90-day and year-end trends unless otherwise noted.

📈 Market Snapshot: Coachella Valley (December 2025)

Source: Greater Palm Springs REALTORS® (GPSR) Desert Housing Report — December 2025

• Median Detached Price: $660,000 (▼ 0.8% YoY)

• Median Attached Price: $460,000 (▼ 3.0% YoY)

• Inventory: 3,028 homes (▲ 4.5% YoY)

• Months of Supply: 4.9 months (balanced, slightly supply-heavy)

• Median Days on Market: 47 days (▲ 6 days YoY)

• Homes Selling Over List: 11.2% (back to pre-pandemic norms)

• Average Sale-to-List Ratio: ~97%

📌 Translation: Prices are stable, inventory is healthier, and buyers have time again.

🧠 Big Picture: What Changed in 2025?

• Sales volume recovered modestly but remains below historic norms

• Pricing peaked earlier in the year and softened seasonally into Q4

• Inventory is now comparable to pre-pandemic levels

• Negotiation — not bidding wars — defines successful deals

This is not a distressed market. It’s a strategic market.

🔍 Top Takeaways

🟢 Buyers: 2025 Ended With Leverage (If You’re Patient)

Top 3 Buyer Takeaways

1. Negotiation Power Is Back
   With only 11.2% of homes selling over list and average discounts around 2–3%, buyers regained leverage across most price points .

2. More Choices, Less Pressure
   Inventory is up Valley-wide, with particularly strong selection in Palm Desert, Palm Springs, and Rancho Mirage.

3. Timing Matters More Than Rates
   Sales activity is steady, not frenzied. Buyers who focus on property quality and pricing discipline — not headlines — are winning deals.

📌 Buyer Strategy for Early 2026:

• Target homes on market 30–60 days

• Write offers with clean terms, not aggressive pricing

• Use price bands strategically (e.g., $775k–$800k, not psychological pricing)

🔵 Sellers: Pricing Precision Is Everything Now

Top 3 Seller Takeaways

1. Correct Pricing = Faster Sales
   Valley-wide median DOM is now 47 days, but cities like Indian Wells and La Quinta are closer to 40–41 dayswhen priced correctly .

2. Overpricing Is Penalized
   Months of supply sits near 5.0 Valley-wide — but Rancho Mirage is closer to 6.9 months, meaning buyers there are choosier.

3. Condition + Presentation Drive Results
   Homes that show well and launch at market-supported prices still sell close to list. Those that don’t… linger.

📌 Seller Strategy for Early 2026:

• Price in $25k increments aligned with buyer search bands

• Expect 2–3% negotiation in most submarkets

• Front-load marketing and exposure in the first 21 days

🟣 STR Owners: Stability Over Speculation

Top 3 STR Owner Takeaways

1. Asset Values Have Stabilized
   Despite softer pricing in some cities, 2025 confirmed that quality STR-capable homes held value — especially in Palm Springs, La Quinta, and Indian Wells .

2. Inventory Growth = Buyer Optionality
   More resale inventory means future STR buyers are selective. Properties with proven income history, permits, and good layouts stand out.

3. Exit Timing Is Market-Specific
   Indian Wells posted +35.6% YoY pricing on average-sized detached homes, while Palm Springs and Rancho Mirage corrected more meaningfully. One-size-fits-all strategy doesn’t work anymore.

📌 STR Strategy for 2026:

• Re-evaluate pricing and revenue assumptions

• Document operating performance cleanly

• Treat resale as a financial asset, not a lifestyle sale

🏘️ City-Level Notes (CDAR Highlights)

Source: CDAR Monthly Market Summaries — December 2025

• La Quinta:
  Inventory ▼ 25% YoY, MoS at 4.7, median price ▲ 5.6% YoY

• Palm Desert:
  Sales ▲ 28.8% YoY, median price ▼ 14.7% YoY, MoS steady at 5.1

• Palm Springs:
  Median price ▼ 17.0% YoY, MoS 7.4 (buyer-leaning)

• Rancho Mirage:
  Median price ▼ 14.3% YoY, DOM improving sharply

• Indian Wells:
  Median price ▲ 9.3% YoY, inventory ▼ 24.5%, luxury demand remains strong

📌 Final Word: 2026 Is a Strategy Year

The Coachella Valley market didn’t weaken in 2025 — it matured.

Buyers gained leverage.
Sellers must lead with pricing discipline.
STR owners should think like portfolio managers.

If you want help translating your specific situation into a smart 2026 move, that’s where real value gets created. Contact me!