Volatility, Seasonality & Pricing After the 2022 Peak

What the Coachella Valley Market Is Really Telling Us — and How to Use It

If the Coachella Valley housing market feels more volatile than it used to, you’re not imagining it.

Prices are moving more noticeably month-to-month. Seasonal swings feel sharper. Attached home pricing, in particular, looks choppier than it did five or even ten years ago. And for homeowners watching charts since the mid-2022 peak, the question keeps coming up:

Is this instability — or is this just what a normal market actually looks like again?

The answer matters, because how you interpret volatility determines when you sell, when you buy, and how you price.

The 2022 Peak Wasn’t Just a High — It Was a Structural Break

Mid-to-early 2022 wasn’t simply the top of a cycle. It was the end of an artificial environment.

From roughly 2020 through early 2022, the market was supported by forces that no longer exist:

• Historically low mortgage rates

• Excess liquidity

• Urgency-driven, emotion-based demand

• Severely constrained inventory

During that period, seasonality didn’t disappear — it was masked. Price movement looked smoother because demand overwhelmed timing.

Once rates rose and urgency faded, the market didn’t “break.”
It reconnected with reality.

Why Volatility Looks More Dramatic Now (Even Though It’s Healthier)

1️⃣ Seasonality Didn’t Increase — Its Visibility Did

The Coachella Valley has always been seasonal:

• Winter and spring drive demand

• Summer thins out buyers

• Fall resets expectations

What’s changed since 2022 is that seasonality now shows up clearly in pricing.

Without cheap money smoothing demand:

• Prices adjust faster

• Buyer hesitation matters more

• Sellers feel timing mistakes sooner

This is most obvious in attached homes, where:

• Buyer demand is more discretionary

• Investor and second-home decisions are more timing-sensitive

• Smaller dollar changes create larger percentage swings

Detached homes follow the same pattern — just with less amplitude.

2️⃣ Inventory Cycles Are Back — and They Matter Again

Before 2022, sellers could list almost anytime and expect success.
Today, inventory timing directly affects leverage.

What we consistently see:

• Inventory builds in late winter and spring

• Some listings come off the market in summer

• Buyers who stay active in summer gain leverage

• Inventory tightens again heading into fall and winter

This doesn’t mean summer is “bad.”
It means summer rewards preparation and pricing discipline.

3️⃣ Volatility Is the Cost of a Market That Actually Works

Pre-2022 price charts look calm because:

• Demand overwhelmed supply

• Pricing errors were forgiven

• Timing mattered less

Post-2022 charts look volatile because:

• Supply and demand are negotiating again

• Buyers have choices

• Sellers must compete

📌 Key point:
Volatility does not mean instability.
It means prices are responding honestly to timing and behavior.

What This Means Right Now for Sellers

This is the most important takeaway for homeowners:

The market is forgiving early, but expensive late.

Why “Now” Matters

• Spring demand is still present

• Inventory is elevated but manageable

• Buyers are active before summer pullback

• Pricing correctly now avoids chasing later

Homes that enter the market well-prepared and properly priced are still selling efficiently. Homes that miss the mark often sit — and sitting leads to deeper seasonal adjustments.

Pricing strategy matters more than optimism.
This is no longer a market where waiting fixes mistakes.

What This Means for Buyers

Buyers should understand two things simultaneously (both can be true):

1. Inventory will likely decline over the summer

2. Leverage often increases during that same period

Why?

• Fewer buyers stay active

• Some sellers become more motivated

• Negotiation improves even as options narrow

For disciplined buyers, summer and shoulder seasons are often where value is created, not lost.

STR Buyers & Sellers: Volatility Is Not the Enemy

For short-term rental owners and investors, volatility is often misunderstood.

For STR Buyers

• Seasonal price softness creates better entry points

• Negotiation improves cash-on-cash returns

• Stabilizing prices paired with steady rents can improve yield

The mistake is waiting for clarity.
The opportunity is pricing into volatility, not avoiding it.

For STR Sellers

• Selling into spring demand still matters

• Waiting into low-activity periods increases pricing pressure

• Strong operating history matters more than ever

Buyers are underwriting more carefully now.
Clean numbers and realistic pricing win.

The Big Takeaway (This Is the Line That Matters)

The post-2022 market isn’t more fragile — it’s more transparent.

Seasonality didn’t suddenly appear.
It stopped being hidden.

For homeowners, buyers, and STR investors, that transparency is actually an advantage — if you understand how to use it.

Final Thought

The market no longer rewards hope.
It rewards preparation, timing, and strategy.

If you want to understand how volatility and seasonality apply specifically to your property or investment goals, that’s where real clarity begins.

Contact me for a FREE pricing & timing strategy review